Posted by: Gregory Linton | 10/07/2016

NCES releases “Projections of Education Statistics to 2024”

Last week, the National Center for Education Statistics released its annual report that provides projections for the 11-year period from 2013 to 2024. 2013 is the latest year of actual data collected. I have listed below some of the key takeaways from these projections for postsecondary education. Note that actual statistics are based on the 14-year period from 1999-2013, but the projections are based on the 11-year period from 2013-2024.

High school graduates: During the 14-year period from 1999-2000 and 2011-12, the number of high school graduates grew by 22 percent. During the next 11 years, that rate will slow to only 3 percent. In the Midwest, the rate will actually decline 1 percent, but it will increase 13 percent in the South.

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Enrollment will increase 14 percent between fall 2013 and fall 2024. However, enrollment increased 37 percent from 1999 to 2013, so the rate of increase will slow down.

Enrollment by age of student:

1999-2013 2013-2024
18-24 years old +40% +13%
25-34 years old +41% +17%
35 years old and older +25% +10%

 

Enrollment by sex of student: The gender gap in higher education will continue to widen, as the following statistics reveal:

  • Enrollment of males will increase 11% between 2013 and 2024; enrollment of females will increase 16%.
  • The number of bachelor’s degrees awarded to males will increase 7% between 2013 and 2024; the number awarded to females will increase by 13%.
  • First-time freshmen fall enrollment of males will increase 9% between 2013 and 2024; enrollment of females will increase 15%.

However, males will have a slight advantage over females in graduate education:

  • The number of master’s degrees awarded to males will increase 38% between 2013 and 2024; the number awarded to females will increase by 34%.
  • The number of doctor’s degrees awarded to males will increase 20% between 2013 and 2024; the number awarded to females will increase by 18%.

Graduate degrees: The big growth area in the future will be graduate education, as the following statistics reveal:

  • Enrollment of undergraduate students will increase 12% from 2013 to 2024; enrollment of postbaccalaureate students will increase 20%.
  • The total number of bachelor’s degrees is projected to increase 10% from 2012-13 to 2014-25; master’s degrees will increase 36%; doctor’s degrees will increase 19%.

Enrollment by race/ethnicity: The greatest increases in enrollment will occur among minorities. Between 2013 and 2024, enrollment for students who are White will increase 7%. Enrollment for students who are Black will increase 28%, and enrollment for students who are Hispanic will increase 25%.

Enrollment in public and private institutions: Private institutions will experience a sharper decline in the increase of enrollment. From 1999 to 2013, enrollment in public institutions increased 30%; it will increase 13% between 2013 and 2024. From 1999 to 2013, enrollment in private institutions increased 62%, but it will increase only 14% between 2013 and 2024.

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  1. […] Source: NCES releases “Projections of Education Statistics to 2024” […]


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